yes frequent strategy changes are shameful indeedIt is true that T-bills are typically the baseline of an "uncorrelated" strategy, as they should be because of their risk-free nature, and also from an implementation point of view that you mentioned. The biggest implementation risk factor aside from the asset allocation itself are the fees.i sold CAOS. i guess i didn't have enough conviction and my tax situation changed a bit and i was able to reduce risk by selling other assets.I recently added both CAOS (new ETF version of AVOLX) and managed futures (KMLM, DBMF, AHLT, CTA) in equal proportions.
All by leverage, financed by box spreads, on top of existing portfolio (mostly SCV tilted global equity plus a little gold, btc, tips)
Reasoning:
- Both had positive returns over their history and uncorrelated to equities.
- Managed futures to help with slow drawdowns like 2022.
- CAOS to help with sharp drawdowns like 2020 (See their presentation)
I am still holding and intend to hold managed futures though. mu understanding managed futures are like "cash plus" investments since they hold t-bill collateral. this should provide a baseline for returns.
You are changing your strategy after only 1.5 months
I notice you didn't mention any treasuries or bonds, even now that interest rates are at 20-year highs. That sounds a bit extreme for a leveraged portfolio, especially in the mHFEA thread.
core of my portfolio didn't change since 2019 (mostly factor tilted global equity + small amount of gold and NTSX).
I keep making changes in the edge (i have added small slices of energy producers and btc in the last couple years)
And maybe managed futures will be a permanent addition (if i lose conviction, i'd replace them with TIPS)
I am early retiring this year. Currently i am at 140% invested (100% being stocks). My next moves will be all about reducing risk. I'll sell some equity in January and get to 115%.
I am not convinced about adding nominal bonds by leverage at this point would reduce my overall risk. Term premium is around zero. Debt/gdp is very high. inflation may come back at some point. I want to hold TIPS. I am now using most of my tax advantaged space for alternatives (mostly trend following), and remaining small part is in TIPS. And i have that NTSX allocation that i bought in 2019. If they had TIPS futures, i'd buy it in taxable.
i suspect HFEA and mHFEA are mostly overfitting to 40 years bond bull run ended in 2022. Their main premise is obviously correct: instead of having only stocks, you should add other less correlated assets with positive expected return. this is basic portfolio theory. I am not sure about "less correlated" and "positive expected return" part about treasury futures today.
Statistics: Posted by klaus14 — Wed Jun 05, 2024 3:31 am — Replies 3075 — Views 708931