Seems like Prof Campbell really missed that oneWe shall see. Cambell Harvey from Duke University opined on CNBC Friday...While clearly the rate trend from recent weeks has been down from the highs, if we're speculating on the multi-year trend, my guess would be we're still likely to see higher interest rates. I wouldn't expect a straight line, or the rapid increases we saw over the past year or so, but despite the slowdown in parts of the economy, the rate of inflation is still higher than the target especially in the sense of their "average inflation over time".While I wanted 3% real, I've been happy to get well over 2% real TIPS. Door is now closing.
I don't expect to see 2%+ again till sometime in the 2030s. We should be a similar thread at that time.
Been fun and thanks for all the knowledge shared.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/founder- ... 31419.html
Campbell Harvey, known for creating the renowned yield curve recession indicator, said a downturn may very well still be on its way.
For one, it's because the Fed is overestimating inflation and raised rates too much. After excluding housing costs, which are a lagging indicator that makes up a sizable chunk of the consumer price index, inflation is already below 2%, according to Harvey.
"If you look at real-time data for shelter, that means inflation is running about 1.8%," he told CNBC on Friday. "So this idea that we still have a long way to go, that's just not the case. That is a false narrative."
CyclingDuo
Statistics: Posted by watchnerd — Wed Apr 17, 2024 6:47 am — Replies 3138 — Views 684370